前沿｜樊海潮等：全球性公共危机、贸易网络与中国经济

樊海潮，张志强，王欢欢. 全球性公共危机、贸易网络与中国经济[J]. 世界经济, 2023, 46(9): 29-51.

Fan Haichao; Zhang Zhiqiang; Wang Huanhuan. Global Crises, Trade Networks and the Chinese Economy[J]. The Journal of World Economy, 2023, 46(9): 29-51.

作者简介：

樊海潮，复旦大学世界经济研究所；

张志强，复旦大学经济学院；

王欢欢，华东师范大学法学院

内容简介

摘要：为回答国际公共卫生危机冲击如何借由贸易关联对中国经济产生影响，本文基于进出口目的国和国外疫情严峻程度的差异，构造了区县层面（或网格层面）面临的国际公共卫生危机冲击指标。研究发现，在冲击初期，国际公共卫生危机对区县夜间灯光亮度增速产生了显著负向影响，且这一影响随着时间推移逐步减弱；冲击前专业化生产医疗品和“宅经济”产品的区县，在面临冲击时，相对于其他区县有更高的经济增速。此外，随着周边区域受到的外来危机冲击增强，本地夜灯亮度增速有所下降，存在明显溢出效应。

关键词：公共卫生危机, 贸易网络, 经济增长, 溢出效应

Abstract:Global crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, pose unprecedented challenges to the development of countries and all humanity. In order to raise awareness of how overseas public health crises affect the Chinese economy through trade ties, this paper uses satellite nighttime light data, establishes monthly economic data at county-district and grid levels and, based on overseas COVID-19 and vaccine data, constructs a series of overseas pandemic impact indicators targeting counties and districts. The findings of the study indicate that the pandemic impact abroad on the luminosity growth of nightlights in counties and districts is significantly negative. Further analysis reveals significant temporal and product-by-product differences in the pandemic impact abroad. On the other hand, the negative impact on the economy turns out to have been most significant in the initial stages of the COVID-19 outbreak. Unlike other counties and districts, counties and districts that specialise in the production of medical supplies and “residential economy” products have a higher economic growth rate during the pandemic. Finally, changes in the growth rate of local nighttime light brightness are accompanied by an increase in the impact of overseas pandemic crisis on surrounding areas, indicating significant spillover effects.

Key words:global crises, trade networks, economic growth, spillover effects