985数量经济与金融系列讲座第143期：Integration of Labor Markets in China: A Neoclassical View

主讲人：Suqin Ge, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

This paper assesses the applicability of two alternative theories in understanding labor market development in China: the classical view featuring a Lewis turning point in wage growth versus a neoclassical framework emphasizing the role of individual choices and market equilibrating forces. Empirical evidence based on multiple sources of data fails to support the arrival of the Lewis turning point, showing instead continuous and coordinated wage growth across rural-urban sectors. Consistent with a neoclassical view, we find that rural workers expanded off-farm work during the reform process, interprovincial migration responded to expected earnings and local employment opportunities, and the returns to education converged gradually to the international standard. These findings suggest that major progresses have been made towards the integration of labor markets in China.