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现代经济学系列讲座585期:Misallocation and Trade Imbalance: Theory and Evidence from China

  发布日期:2019-10-18  浏览次数:

题目:Misallocation and Trade Imbalance: Theory and Evidence from China

主讲人:潘士远,浙江大学

时间:2019年10月29日(周二) 14:30-15:45

地点:复旦大学经济学院710会议室

Abstract:Over the past 15 years, the trade imbalance between China and the United States has continued to expand, which is one of the main reasons leading to the recent trade war between China and the United States. By constructing a bilateral trade model, this paper analyses the bilateral trade imbalance between China and the United States. On the one hand, China has a huge trade surplus in manufacturing industry; on the other hand, China has a huge trade deficit in service industry. We believe that in the process of China's economic development, household demand for services and manufactured goods is uneven, and the former is growing much faster than the latter. However, due to policy distortions and supervision, the supply of service goods is insufficient. Therefore, the mismatch of consumption and production is an important reason for the divergence of trade balance between the two sectors.We find that: the structural change in consumption and resource misallocation in the supply side can help explain the rising of (sector-level) trade imbalance from 1998 to 2016. Eliminating domestic policy distortion such as credit constraints on private firms and subsidies on SOE can reduce the trade imbalance by 40.71% and increase welfare by 6.14%.

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