数量经济与金融系列讲座第359期：Cycles of Credit Expansion and Misallocation: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

题目：Cycles of Credit Expansion and Misallocation: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

主讲：董丰，助理教授

上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院

时间：2017年11月9日（周四）16:00-17:30

地点：复旦大学经济学院614会议室

Abstract: Financial crises are probably 'credit booms gone wrong', sometimes coined as Minsky moment/cycle. We develop a general equilibrium banking model with heterogeneous firms to analyze the consequences of credit boom. We show that a moderate credit expansion has a non-monotonic impact on the real economy. It raises credit available to the market but deteriorates firm-level productivity distortions. Furthermore, a sufficiently large credit expansion may trigger an inter-bank market crisis, generating a large-scale non-linear effect. The resulting economic recession is greatly exacerbated by the within-sector productivity misallocation. In a dynamic setup, we show that an expansionary credit policy may cause endogenous boom-burst business cycles even though adverse shocks are absent.