数量经济与金融系列讲座413期：International Trade Finance and Learning Dynamics

主题：International Trade Finance and Learning Dynamics

主讲：张圣醒，LSE经济系助理教授，北京大学汇丰商学院访问副教授

时间：2023年3月22日（周三） 14：30

地点：复旦大学经济学院805会议室

摘要：We study how the use of trade finance and the development of long-term rela- tionships between exporters and importers facilitate international trade by allowing exporters to learn about demand uncertainty and counter-party risk. Using detailed micro-level Chilean data, we document that new exporters are more likely to use cash- in-advance (CIA) arrangements and gradually switch to providing trade credit as they continue to export. The initial use of CIA also depends on firms’ former exporting experience and the perceived riskiness of the destination. We set up an international trade model in which firms make exporting and trade financing decisions subject to demand and counter-party risks and use it to quantify the relative importance of de- mand and counter-party risks and how trade finance choices affect export dynamics. Our model implies that exporters tend to use initially CIA and export low quantities to limit their risk exposure and, as they learn about their counterparty and foreign demand, they switch to providing trade credit and expand their sales.