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数量经济与金融系列讲座407期:China's Housing Bubble, Infrastructure Investment, and Economic Growth(中国的房地产泡沫,基础设施投资与经济增长)

  发布日期:2019-10-11  浏览次数:

主题:China's Housing Bubble, Infrastructure Investment, and Economic Growth(中国的房地产泡沫,基础设施投资与经济增长)

主讲:江深哲,北京大学

时间:2019年10月17日 16:00-17:30

地点:复旦大学经济学院614会议室

摘要:China's housing price has been growing rapidly over the past decade, despite its low rents growth. We study the impact of housing bubbles on China's real economy, through the channel that local governments use land-sale revenue to fuel infrastructure investment. We calibrate our model to the Chinese data over the period 2003-2013 and find that our calibrated model can match the declining capital return and GDP growth, the average housing price growth, and the rising infrastructure to GDP ratio in the data. We also conduct two counterfactual experiments. If the bubble bursts in 2025, then on impact the GDP growth rate falls to 3% due to the hit to the housing sector, but GDP in the long run exceeds that with the bubble because of the reallocation of capital and labor to the non-housing sector. If the bubble remains, however, implementing a property tax will reduce its size and increase long-run output.

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