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复旦经济论坛399期:The Financing of Local Government in China: Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes

  发布日期:2017-06-22  浏览次数:


The Financing of Local Government in China:Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes


Zhiguo He (何治国)

Professor of Finance, Co-Director of Fama-Miller Center

University of Chicago, Booth School of Business

Professor Zhiguo He serves as a Professor of Finance, PhD area advisor, and Faculty Director of Fama-Miller center at the University of Chicago, Booth School of Business. He is also the Special-term professor at Tsinghua University, School of Economics and Management. His main research interest lies in the implications of agency frictions and debt maturities in financial markets and macroeconomics, with a special focus on contract theory and banking.

Professor He’s most recent research focuses on the role of financial institutions in the 2007/08 global financial crisis, and has been published in leading academic journals includingAmerican Economic Review, Econometrica, Review of Economic Studies, Journal of Finance, Review of Financial Studies, and Journal of Financial Economics, and he is serving as Associate Editor for both Journal of Finance and Review of Financial Studies.

Professor He is teaching a newly created elective MBA course on “China’s Financial Market.” He is also conducting active academic research on Chinese financial markets that are undergoing rapid development these days, including stock market, local government debt, shadow banking, interbank markets, together with recent regulation changes.

Professor He received his bachelor and master degrees from Tsinghua University in Beijing, and obtained his PhD from Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. He has been named a 2014 Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellow, and has won numerous awards for his outstanding scholastic record, including Lehman Brothers Fellowship for Research Excellence in Finance in 2007, the Swiss Finance Institute Outstanding Paper Award in 2012, the Smith-Breeden First Prize in 2012 and the Brattle Group First Prize in 2014. Before joining the Chicago Booth faculty in 2008, he worked as a stock analyst at the China International Capital Corporation in Beijing in 2001, and was visiting the Bendheim Center for Finance at Princeton University as a post-doc fellow.

时间:2017年6月22日 (星期四)14:00-16:00


Abstract: We show that China’s four-trillion-yuan stimulus package fueled by bank loans in 2009 (as a response to the 2007/08 global financial crisis) led to the rapid growth of shadow banking activities in China several years later. The local governments in China financed the stimulus plan mainly through bank loans in 2009, and resorted to non-bank debt financing after 2012 facing mounting rollover pressure from bank debt coming due. Coss-sectionally, the provinces with abnormally greater bank loan growth in 2009 experienced more Municipal Corporate Bonds issuance during the periods of 2012-2015, and we link the stimulus loan rollovers of local governments to shadow banking activities, including entrusted loans and wealth management products. We argue that the four-trillion-yuan stimulus package has the perhaps unintended consequence of modernizing China’s financial market post 2012, and highlight the market forces behind the regulation changes in China inthat period.