林曙教授的论文被国际SSCI期刊正式接受

我院国际金融系林曙教授的论文The role of financial development in exchange rate regime choices (与Haichun Ye合作）最近被国际SSCI期刊Journal of International Money and Finance正式接受发表。

The role of financial development in exchange rate regime choices

Shu Lin and Haichun Ye

ABSTRACT

We make the first attempt in the literature to empirically investigate the role of financial development in the choice of exchange rate regimes. Using a binary choice model, we first show that financially less developed countries are more likely to adopt a fixed exchange rate. To further examine the impact of financial development on the conditional probability of exiting from an existing pegged system to a flexible one, we then employ hazard-based duration analysis. We find strong evidence that countries with higher levels of financial development are more likely to exit a pegged system, and, interestingly, financial development only matters to orderly exits but not disorderly exits. Our results are robust to controlling for endogeneity and sample selection.

JEL classification: F3, F4

Keywords: exchange rate regimes; financial development; duration analysis; hazard; competing risks