Economic Transition in China: Long-Run Growth and Short-Run Fluctuations, edited by Prof. Yuan Zhigang, was recently published by World Scientific. The book, based on Prof. Yuan and his team’s research on China’s macro economy, focuses on China’s future economic growth. Discussions are centered on four key factors that are closely related to each other:  globalization, industrialization, urbanization, and aging of population.

The book is divided into 14 chapters, studying China’s potential future economic growth from multiple aspects: international trade, consumption and savings, political economy, urbanization and the corresponding policy, real estate, financial system and local government behavior, population and labor, social justice and intergenerational mobility.  

Meanwhile, in the face of short-term economic fluctuations in China, Professor Yuan offers some new perspectives in the book. First, labor productivity should be the sole criterion for the government to set policies. Second, since Chinese consumption will not rise in the near future, investment should be further increased, taking full advantage of the demographic dividend before its disappearance. Infrastructure investment and construction should be completed by 2030. Third, consumption increase and savings decrease brought by the aging of population will force radical financial reforms.